Business Opportunities
Pages: [1] 2
Bullish signals for 2010
The markets were on a roller coaster over the last two years which made it difficult to predict the road ahead. The Lehman collapse in 2008 and the credit crunch thereafter created an air of uncertainty and investors shied away from risk. Though this resulted in the indices touching multi-year lows in March 2009, the recovery when it came has been consistent and strong. With the markets holding steady and worst behind us, our panel of technical analysts predict that the bulls will be in control in 2010 Net gains in 2010 Negative view on state-run oil cos: Fitch Jan cement sales in high double-digit On January 8, 2008, almost two years ago, the Nifty peaked at its all time high of 6,357. After that, the trend reversed into a short, very deep bear market. On October 27, 2008, the Nifty hit a three-year low of 2,252. From peak to bottom, the index lost 65 per cent. The six months between October 2008-March 2009 saw consolidation followed by range-trading between 2,500-2,900. Since March 2009, there’s been a big turnaround. The Nifty has surged past the 5,000-mark, with positive background indicators. Volumes have jumped and the ratio of advances-declines has improved. It is clear the major trend is bullish. That has a few implications. One is that the market should continue to see a pattern of rising tops and bottoms while the major trend stays up. A second is that this uptrend should eventually result in the January 2008 highs being overtaken. Right now, the chart pattern of the Nifty is quite easy to interpret. The market has been forming an inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern between May 2008 and now. The neckline of this bullish 19-month formation is between 5,200-5,400, which is why there is a great deal of resistance just above current trading levels. As and when the market clears the resistances and moves above the neckline on higher volumes, there will be a sharp upmove to a projected target of 6,000-6,200. There is very little resistance between 5,400-6,100 because the market moved extremely fast in that zone in early 2008. So there will be an accelerated uptrend on any breakout past 5,400. If the major trend remains bullish this will be the normal outcome. There is a fair chance that this will occur in calendar 2010. Normally, Indian bull markets last longer than nine months. So we would expect net gains in 2010. However, major trends do reverse and inverted H&S formations have been known to fail. If the resistance at the neckline holds, the bull market may find support and consolidate in the range of 4,600-4,800. The support in the 4,600-4,800 zone is crucial. There has been a great deal of trading congestion there and the 200-day moving average is at the bottom end, reinforcing support. Below 4,600, the market will see a major trend reversal and probably turn into a bear market. A third possibility is that the market will mark time, range-trading between 4,600-5,400. This could occur for an extended period while resistance between 5,200-5,400 is tested and cleared. However, a decisive trend, either up or down, appears more likely in 2010. There are several danger signals, which the trader may wish to track. One is that the Nifty’s valuation, as expressed in PE, is high at around 23. PE is a mean-reverting ratio, which can generate technical signals. It tends to revert close to the long-term average, which is 18 for the Nifty. The ideal situation would see EPS grow fast and PEs drop while prices rise. This combination of rising prices and dropping PE has happened in earlier bull runs. Another potential danger is higher interest rates. There is an inverse relationship between rates and stock prices. Rates are rising. High stock prices can be sustained only if the rise in interest rates is moderate. A third factor to be watched is FII attitude. The market may not be capable of generating the volumes required to hit 6,000+ in the absence of strong FII buying. Two months of sustained FII selling would call the major trend into danger. What about other sectors and subsidiary indices? Smaller stocks as tracked by the Nifty Junior and the Midcaps and CNX500 will move in the same direction as the Nifty. The CNXIT has outperformed in the past two years and it appears capable of outperforming the Nifty in 2010 as well. The Bank Nifty looks flatter - it could be an underperformer because financial sector stocks will be hit harder by rising interest rates. There are two other sector indices worth mentioning due to heavy weightage. One is the CNX infrastructure index, which tracks stocks across various infra sectors. The infra index has been an underperformer and among its segments, power appears the most bullish. Another subsidiary index - the CNX Realty - carries clear warning signals. Realty is not yet back in a bull market as a sector. It could be the most disappointing performer of 2010 since there is huge resistance above current levels as well. The author is a technical analyst Rally may not last beyond Q1, 2010 Mukul Pal Absolutely speaking, India is in a trading range for two more years, relatively speaking it’s time to shift allocations. It’s the time of the year, where we account for what we got right and where we were off the mark. This is what we said in our annual outlook in January 2009 and what happened. On target Anticipated - ‘We won’t be surprised if prices retest October lows or breach them marginally in early Q2, 2009. And this means selective stock picking and minimising market exposure by doing quantitative long short strategies. 13,000-15,000 is an achievable high for Sensex in 2009.’ Happened - Sensex touched 15,521 in June 09 and now prices are 16 per cent above 15,000. The October 2009 low 7,699 was tested marginally in March 2009 at 8,047. Anticipated- “BSE Metals was the worst performing sector of the year with returns of a negative 72 per cent. We expect it to deliver better returns.” Happened - BSE METALS was up 339 per cent. Anticipated - “Long BSE 500 and short Sensex also seems an attractive pair.” Happened - The pair was up 14 per cent till date from March lows, up 5 per cent from March - June 2009. Anticipated - “Don’t get too much into the negative mode despite all the crisis and a majority of this is foolish talk.” Happened - Assets moved up 100 per cent to 300 per cent after Mumbai attacks. You can’t say we did not try to convince you. We wrote on ‘History, markets and terror’ explaining why the Mumbai attacks didn’t happen at a market top. We wrote ‘Russia Oil and the Global low’. Anticipated - “The expected bounce should be choppy and time consuming.” The markets rose clearly from March to June and then got into choppy sideways action. Anticipated - “The tech reversal - January, 26 2009.” Happened - Technology reversed and pushed up 191 per cent. Where we got it wrong This is what we said on July 24. Anticipated- “We repeat the best of 2009 is nearly over and any upside from here should barely reach double digits (less than 10 per cent) for the 12 indices we discussed.” Happened - Though BSE OIL, BSE FMCG, BSE REAL, BSE POWER did not cross 10 per cent gains since July 24 high, the rest of the nine indices broke the 10 per cent barrier. On average, all sector indices registered 19 per cent gains since July 24. Though we said the expected bounce should be choppy and time consuming, there were sectors and indices that grew without a pause like CNXIT. ‘Performance cycles’ is a term coined by us at Orpheus. This is another name for time triads, time arbitrage, time fractals but expressed in terms of relative performance. It’s a bounded oscillator that moves in a fixed range say 1-30. 1 is top relative performance and 30 is worst performance. The idea is that performance is cyclical. A top performer will underperform in future and vice versa. A top relative performer is also the worst value pick and the top relative underperformer is the best value pick. We have carried the quarterly numeric ranking for Nifty 50. Top performers for Q1 2010 - Reliance Infrastructure, Grasim, RCom, Bharti, Reliance, L&T, Jaiprakash Associates, DLF, Idea, Ambuja, Reliance Capital, Reliance Power, Suzlon, Unitech and ABB. The top underperformers for Q1 2010 are Punjab National Bank, Jindal Steel, Cipla, TCS, Tata Motors, Wipro, Ranbaxy, Tisco, HDFC Bank, SBI, Sun Pharma, M&M, Infosys, GAIL, and SAIL. The passive way of investing using performance cycles assumes that you have 30 stocks with 10,000 Euros each in the 30 stocks. Now you close the top underperformers and reinvest the cash proceeds into the top performers. The active way to play on performance cycles is to go long top performers and short top underperformers. This would need pairs, value hedging and beta classifications and of course understanding of leverage. Regarding the overall market direction, we can look at time again. Markets go up when the time confirms and vice versa. Time fractal approach means that if we need a view for the 12 months and few weeks ahead, we need to see how time is placed few months and weeks. This is what we did. We plotted the time (days) between intermediate trends. The time indicator is an oscillator. A rising oscillator indicates a trend and a falling oscillator indicates counter trend. At this stage the intermediate time indicator is still rising suggesting there may be further upside. Any rally in Indian markets should not last beyond Q1 2010 (high of 2010). At this stage however, we see the market opening positive on January 4 and pushing higher. A net positive 2010 is a low probability scenario at this stage. India is in a multi-year trading range for us, something like the 1990’s US bear market which lasted for four years. Till the time we get clarity onPages: [1] 2